As a quick recap from part 1 & 2 where we discussed the commonality of making preparations based on this threat matrix.

Individual – Localized – Large Scale – National Scale – Global

In part one we looked at the scales of events and how each might affect us as individuals.

In part two we started to look at the specifics we need to work on for our individual preparations depending or our location.

So back to the question where is the commonality? No matter what the level of the event, be it something as simple as a job loss, a localized disaster or major global event items number 2 through 6 that we talked about in the prior post are constant needs.

As a beginning prepper we start at the beginning, that highest probability thing most likely to happen to us individuals, a job loss.

In this scenario we need water that is clean and drinkable, we need food, we need shelter, and we need energy and we need security. If it only takes you a month to find a new job you really only need to have a month’s worth of food on hand and money the bank to pay your bills for the next month. For a short-term power outage perhaps from a storm or transformer failure, if you have a small generator to keep your freezer and refrigerator a few lights running you probably only need enough gasoline to run a generator for a couple of days. If your local water supply becomes contaminated but your local water company is working to correct the problem you only need to have perhaps weeks worth of stored water on hand and a small filter system is a backup. Basically as you move up the scale and the size of the event or disaster you increase the number of days you can operate autonomously from outside support and utility companies.

In many “Prepper” discussion groups and circles one of the topics that gets the most attention is guns and ammunition. Don’t get me wrong on this, they are both high on the list of things needed and we will cover them later. In my opinion top of the list should really be food. After all, most of us eat three meals a day and stop and ask yourself, when was the last time you were in a gunfight? For the majority of us the answer is never, for others in the line of duty, way too often. So if for whatever reason the grocery stores run out and the restaurants are closed, what will you do when it’s time to eat?

It has been reported in a number of places that the average household in America has less than 1 week of food in their home at any given time. I have not been unable to verify any research or credible report that it is a fact, but don’t find it too had to believe.

Let’s step back to our earlier, most likely personal disaster scenario where, you or your spouse has lost your job. If you had 30 days of food stored in your home, would that help with your cash flow until you were able to find another job? What about 60 days, or 6 month’s worth stored? If you don’t have at least a month’s worth stored right now, there are many ways to build your food storage over time and within a budget. Copy canning is one way, stocking up on sale items is another. It is not a good idea to buy a years supply of canned goods all at one time.  For one thing it’s expensive and the second is canned foods have an expiration date. (That’s another topic for another post later on). By purchasing your storage food over time, you can buy a newer expiration dated food and put them into a rotation behind your older cans.

The most important things to keep in mind as you begin and maintain your stored food, is you MUST store what you eat, AND eat what you store. If you don’t already have a grocery list that has what your family commonly eats now, start one. Goggle copy canning and it will give you a basic way to build up your food storage over time. Just because Spam is on sale, but no one in your household will eat it, don’t buy it. Same goes for macaroni & cheese, canned spinach, Captain Crunch or any other thing that you’re family won’t eat.

Dried rice, beans, pasta, wheat, and corn are inexpensive, high in calorie count and will last almost indefinitely when packed and stored correctly. They are the basic staples most of us are storing but it is going to be some pretty boring meals within a couple of days if that is all you have. Having a good variety of canned vegetables, canned meats and fruits will help you create some variety in your meals and avoid food boredom. Another thing to keep in mind for food storage is does anyone in your family have specific food allergies that should be avoided. And as a final storage thought, do not forget the dried spices.

The advantages to having your own garden can be easy to list. How about knowing what you are eating has not been bombarded with chemicals and pesticides or the varieties that you chose to grow are not GMO’s. A little exercise and time in the sunshine and fresh air is good for most people as well. Depending how much area you can devote to a garden, and how much time you have to manage it, you may be able to substantially cut your food bill at the grocery store. A fair amount of fresh vegetables and root crops like potatoes and carrots can even be grown in containers if you don’t have the yard space for a full blown garden. Even small trees will produce in containers. My wife has two dwarf Meyer’s lemon trees in large pots that give us dozens of fresh fruit every year. Although they have to be moved inside during the winter months here, (we’re in middle Tennessee), but with them in a container it’s a fairly easy project with a two wheeled hand dolly.

Fishing and hunting equipment along with the experience, training and skills are another means to put food on your family’s table. Both are great hobbies and a day in the woods or on one of your local waterways beats sitting in front of the TV any day of the week.

Links for topics we covered in this post

Water Storage & Filtration:

http://www.surewatertanks.com/

http://aquamira.com/

http://www.survival.com/

Food Storage Calculator:

http://www.thefoodguys.com/foodcalc.html

http://lds.about.com/library/bl/faq/blcalculator.htm

Gardening:

http://www.garden.org/

http://www.instructables.com/id/Home-Gardening/

https://www.lsuagcenter.com/

We left off last time discussing the likely hood of each scenario in the Threat Probability Matrix.

Individual – Localized – Large Scale – National Scale – Global

So where exactly does commonality come into play with these various levels of threats and disasters? Let’s take a look at what we all us humans need to survive and to have relative comfort in our day-to-day lives. Afterwards we will try to explain how the commonalities between these factor into our preparedness plans.

The basic human needs for survival / preparedness and to have relative comfort are:

1. Knowledge, knowing what to do with the things you have.
2. Water that’s clean and drinkable
3. Shelter, could be your home, a tent, or proper clothing for your area.
4. Food, canned goods, freezer stocked up, garden growing, dehydrated or freeze dried.
5. Energy, be it heat to cook your food or warm your shelter or electricity for lights & radios.
6. Security / Self Defense
7. Low or No Debt
8. Trade Currency, i.e. cash (or Barter items), to acquire the things you need from others.

Knowledge is something that takes time to acquire just like skills and abilities, they will need to be taught and learned. Hopefully you will spend your entire life learning new things and skills.

For instance, how to hammer a nail is a basic skill, but the knowledge is what size hammer and what size nail should you use for a specific job. If you are lucky enough to have parents, relatives or friends that can teach you things like cooking, gardening, carpentry, appliance repair, hunting, fishing, the list goes on, you should take full advantage of what they can offer.

Today, as I write this, there are skilled instructors all around us that specialize in areas that we can learn from and be able to gain the knowledge and tools we may lack. Some instruction is free for the asking, other may have a small cost and others may cost several hundred dollars. There are also books, DVD’s and the Internet for research and you should have a library card if you live close to a public library where knowledge is stored the old fashion way.  Once a disaster happens, those resources might not be available so time’s a wasting, start getting the knowledge while you still can.

For modern preppers, as we are sometimes referred to, there are some basic things you need to know that are common to all levels of the threat matrix. If you already have a plan A for numbers 2 through 6 in case the current systems fail and have a back up plan B if there is a problem with A, you are in pretty good shape. If you don’t, then those are the first basic skills you need to somehow invest the time attending a class, reading and learning.

Consider what could go wrong with your water supply. We have lived in places where the city water supply became contaminated from floodwaters and chemical spills. (Greater New Orleans area, they get their drinking water from the Mississippi River). Having some sort of a way to filter, boil or chemically treat water to make it safe for drinking is a must have. With out clean water you will die and if you drink contaminated water you might only get sick or you might die. If you are on a well and you lose power, do you have back up power source or a hand pump? There are a number of ways to clean water, do you know one or more if you had to make your water safe to drink? How about keeping some amount of stored water on hand for a short-term interruption. There are containers from clean 1 liter soda bottles to 5 gallon jugs to hundreds of gallon tanks available from lots of different suppliers and sources.

Regarding your shelter and wherever it is you live now, a house, apartment or bug out cabin in the deep woods, we can address that next. If your primary plan is to shelter in place, there are a number of things you can have on hand to maintain the structure. If there is a bad storm and it damages your roof or knocks out a window what would you do? Having a couple of a blue tarps, several rolls of heavy mil plastic, some duct tape and a staple gun with a good supply of staples gives you the basics to make some temporary repairs after the weather clears. In hurricane prone areas we’ve all probably seen on the TV people boarding up windows with plywood to protect them from breakage. In flood prone areas, sand bags might be what you need to have a supply of. If your house has a basement and a pump to keep water out like some parts of the country do, back up electric power is needed. In areas where tornados are common, either a reinforced safe room or a storm shelter maybe worth investing in.

 

So you’ve come to the realization that the world and the times we live in are getting a little scary and that you want to be more prepared for the unexpected, to be more self-reliant. Maybe you decided to put away some extra food, maybe a few extra boxes of ammo for your rifle or plant that vegetable garden. You’ve become a “Prepper” but do you have a clear idea of what you are prepping for? If you are concerned about the unrest in the world or the direction our country is heading in, or you live in an area that is likely to be impacted by natural disasters like hurricanes or floods. Making some preparation makes good sense but it can be overwhelming to think and list all of the possibilities that are out there. How can we break it down into manageable chunks to improve your preparations and lower your stress level?

Then there is the question of does preparing for “Events” that may or may not happen make sense both financially and for your time investment. The other big thing to consider as well is that all the things we do to prepare for threats should have real value and benefits and improves your life even if nothing major ever goes wrong.

Let’s take a look at a Threat Probability Matrix that was published recently by Jack Spirko. It attempts to analyze and help us predict the likelihood of what could happen to any of us at some point in the future. He’s broken it down into 5 basic categories.

Individual – Localized – Large Scale – National Scale – Global

Making a list of events and scenarios for each of these categories can get long, complex and difficult to compile and will vary by your location, but let’s just look at a few examples.

An Individual event would be something like the loss of your job or your spouse’s job or a fire in your home, or one of your family members has a major illness. Effects are primarily going to be on you and your family.

A Localized or Regional Disaster would be a thing like a tornado, flooding, an earthquake or a train wreck with a hazardous chemical spill. You may or may not be directly affected but will feel some impact to local services like short-term electricity interruption or your local hospitals capacity challenged if many people are injured and other local services curtailed for a short time.

Moving into Large-scale events would be a major Hurricane like Katrina or more recently hurricane Sandy that effected several states for a longer period of time. Goods and services are not available like food, fuel, and medical attention for days, into weeks and in some places months.

National scale disaster is something along the line of a Nuclear strike to multiple US cities or an EMP event whether it be from solar activity or an attack. This one is hard to imagine but help might not be available in some places for months to years.

On a Global scale you have pandemics, financial markets collapsing, World War breaking out or an asteroid impact on Earth.

So what is the likely hood of each of these scenarios affecting you and your family and are there preparations can we make that would be applicable to all but “The End Of The World Event”?

 

What is more likely in the next few weeks, loose your job or there is a global Pandemic? Where then do we start to begin thinking about how can I possibility prepare of all of the above?

 

We will begin cover each of these in more detail in the next posts.